The rapid development of humanoid robots has seized the global spotlight, marking a pivotal shift in technological innovation and future industry landscapesCentral to this movement is China, which has established humanoid robots as a vital component of its future industrial emblemAs we delve into the current state of China's humanoid robot industry, it becomes evident that the application scenarios are maturing, yet there remain significant challenges that need to be addressed for the sector to thrive in the coming years.

According to a recent report by CCID Consulting, the humanoid robot industry is expected to enter an explosive growth phase by 2023, with forecasts indicating that the industry size in China could surpass 20 billion yuan by 2026. The report highlights the increasing prevalence of functional robots that will gradually dominate the market, showcasing immense potential for development.

Last October, China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the "Guiding Opinions on the Innovative Development of Humanoid Robots," suggesting that by 2025, an initial innovation system for humanoid robots will be established

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By 2027, the industry aims to achieve comprehensive strengths that reach an advanced global level, solidifying its role as a critical new driver of economic growth.

In the midst of this transition, humanoid robots are at a critical juncture, moving from laboratory research to large-scale industrial applicationsThe rapid growth of the industry is underscored by heightened research activities and a vibrant ecosystem that is fostering innovation.

At the recent 2024 China Humanoid Robot Ecology Conference, an impressive array of humanoid robots dazzled attendeesRobots like those with lifelike mechanical hands and smart joints demonstrated their capabilities to fulfill various tasks fluidly, leaving spectators in awe as they engaged in interactive performancesThis echoes scenes from science fiction movies, indicating that many of the technologies once thought to be impossible are now very much within reach.

The emergence of advanced AI models is a landmark moment for the field, as humanoid robots are now capable of perception, reasoning, and decision-making

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This technological leap is accelerating global competition, as nations and companies strive to carve a niche in this nascent market.

On March 13, American OpenAI collaborated with Figure AI to introduce their general-purpose robot, Figure 01. Within days, Nvidia, a leader in AI computing, unveiled the humanoid robot baseline model Project GR00TIn April, Boston Dynamics launched a new version of its Atlas robot, which transitioned to pure electric powerBy early May, Tesla showcased its humanoid robot Optimus, demonstrating capabilities to sort batteries, walk, and perform factory tasks.

A representative from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology noted that the sector is entering a vibrant window of rapid development, characterized by the influx of established tech giants and emerging startupsHumanoid robots are integrating advanced technologies such as AI, high-end manufacturing, and new materials, positioning themselves as potentially disruptive products following the trends set by computers, smartphones, and electric vehicles

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The implications for transforming human lifestyles and reshaping the global industrial landscape are profound.

In one laboratory visit, a humanoid robot named Ginger enthusiastically greeted researchers with a cheerful "Hello, nice to meet you!" After a few rounds of interaction, Ginger impressively danced along to the music, moving naturally and fluidly, defying traditional perceptions of robots as rigid and mechanicalThe displayed smart flexible joints revealed the secret behind Ginger's remarkable movements.

Chen Yuan, the Vice President of Dalu Robotics Co., emphasized the transformative nature of humanoid robotsHe shared that for years, those involved in robotics aspired to create service robots capable of seamlessly entering households and replacing human tasksToday, advancements in embodied intelligence technology are bringing that dream closer to realityThe ability of humanoid robots to pour coffee, lift bottles, and perform dances showcases a flexibility and quickness that could liberate human labor in sectors characterized by high risk and labor intensity.

Despite a competitive market environment, the humanoid robot industry in China continues to flourish

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Products from domestic companies such as UBTECH's Walker, Xiaomi's CyberOne, Dalu's Ginger, and Fourier's GR-1 are now availableAccording to CIID Consulting’s Future Industry Research Center, the domestic humanoid robot market can be classified into four dominant patterns.

Firstly, emerging startups, exemplified by companies like UBTECH, Fourier, and ZhiYuan, have established technological expertise in servo joints and motion control, driving the development of practical products aimed at serving the elderly and disabledSecondly, there are traditional robotics enterprises like Dalu, Yujian, and DJI, which have accumulated years of experience and market presence, focusing on industry chain integrationThe internet giants like Xiaomi and Alibaba are leveraging their backgrounds in human-machine interaction, AI, and IoTLastly, major tech manufacturers such as Huawei and BYD, with their robust technical and financial resources, bring rich experience in cloud computing and intelligent manufacturing to the sector.

Zhao Gang, director of the CIID Industry Research Institute, stated that thanks to China's strong supply chain system and advanced manufacturing base, domestic companies have made significant strides in key technological areas, evidenced by their leading global position in technology patent filings

Many products have already found real-world applications in fields like industrial manufacturing, life services, educational entertainment, and specialized operationsAs humanoid products reach mass production readiness, rapid scaling will follow.

On December 29, 2023, a nimble humanoid robot confidently walked onto the Hong Kong Stock Exchange stage, signaling the birth of China’s first publicly traded humanoid robot company, Shenzhen UBTECH Robotics Co., LtdBy May 31, 2024, Dongfeng Liuzhou Automobile signed a cooperation agreement with UBTECH, initiating the Walker S robot’s deployment to assist in various automobile manufacturing checks.

Over the past year, general AI exemplified by ChatGPT has spurred a new wave of technological innovation, positioning humanoid robots as favorites in the investment landscapeVenture capital firms such as IDG and Sequoia have actively entered the space, drawing attention from tech giants like Tesla, Samsung, Huawei, and Xiaomi

CIID's Future Industry Research Center reported that as of November 2022, investments in China's humanoid robotics industry exceeded 80 billion yuan.

Zhao Gang believes humanoid robots are poised to create a market worth trillionsHe views humanoid robots as a flagship product for future industrial innovation, a crucial vehicle for cutting-edge technological advancement, and the key equipment for the integrated development of future industries, underscoring their vast market potential.

This high caliber of innovation is steering the transformation of China's manufacturing sector toward advanced technology levelsZhao analyzed that humanoid robots, as highly integrated technological vehicles, encompass innovations in several areas including AI large models, six-dimensional force sensing, high-torque servo motors, dynamic motion planning, bionic perception, intelligent dexterity, and electronic skin, among others

Breakthroughs in these core technologies will significantly drive the innovation and development of related disciplines, injecting sustained momentum into the humanoid robot industry as it advances to higher and more intelligent levels.

Moreover, the comprehensive nature of the humanoid robot industry chain facilitates a broad spectrum of collaborative opportunitiesThe design of these robots necessitates new materials, while their movement requires coordination of sensors, motors, mechanical arms, reducers, automated control systems, and LIDARThe realization of mass production will yield further opportunities for these sectors, resulting in a robust, tech-driven industrial cluster.

The anticipated demand for humanoid robots augments their potentialTheir high load capacity and fault tolerance can optimize labor distribution within society and alleviate the labor challenges posed by an aging population

Beyond industrial applications, these intelligent machines hold promise for sectors like healthcare, education, and household services, evolving into indispensable companions in daily activities.

As Zhang Weimin, Senior Business Supervisor at the Institute of Artificial Intelligence Research, pointed out, advancements in AI are leading to performance enhancements in core components of humanoid robots, enabling large-scale design and manufacturingThe entire sector is likely to accelerate its evolution through structured applications in specific scenarios, transitioning to more extensive industrial and public service environments in the longer term, ultimately achieving universal applicabilityPredictions suggest that humanoid robot market scales could parallel those of the current electric vehicle industry.

Numerous forecasts highlight the robust external expectations surrounding the humanoid robotics sector

According to the High Industry Research Institute (GGII), the global market for humanoid robots is anticipated to exceed $20 billion by 2030, with investment bank Goldman Sachs predicting a staggering market potential of $154 billion by 2035.

Industry experts concur that the humanoid robot sector is set for rapid growth over the next 10 to 20 years, positioning it as a cornerstone of the next technological revolution and transforming future industry landscapes.

In his recent investigations, Zhong Xinlong, Director of the AI Research Room at CIID’s Future Industry Research Center, noted, “We must not only look up to the stars but also pay attention to the solid ground beneath our feet.” He has been visiting numerous humanoid robotics companies across the country to grasp the industry’s developmental challenges firsthand.

Reflecting on the evolution of humanoid robots, the first prototype emerged in 1973, laying the foundation for gradually advancing technologies

Despite their early bulky and clumsy designs, these robots represented a breakthrough from the realm of digitized concepts to the physical worldWith the continual evolution of deep learning, perception systems, and interactive capabilities, humanoid robots have progressively become more intelligent, showcasing improved motion capabilities and interactions.

Currently, as humanoid robots approach commercialization, a critical barrier remains: their complexity and high production costs mean that each unit can cost millions, causing a hesitation in the consumer market.

Zhong believes that for a technological product to become mainstream, it hinges on two key factors: achieving pivotal technological breakthroughs and capable industry scalingThe former lays the groundwork by determining whether a product works effectively, while the latter focuses on pricing strategies and market demands during the commercialization process, enticing consumers to invest.  

When addressing the technological aspect, China’s humanoid robotics sector still has significant room for improvement, particularly regarding foundational principles and core technologies

A challenge lies in enabling robots to accurately perceive dynamic environments and intuit human language cues, expressions, and emotions effectivelyFurthermore, increasing the domestic sourcing of essential components such as reducers, servo motors, and controllers remains a goal.

The "Guidance on the Innovative Development of Humanoid Robots" emphasizes overcoming critical technology barriers, encompassing the development of a humanoid robot's 'brain' and 'nervous system,' while enhancing technology innovation capabilities.

Chen Yuan asserts that, much like human beings, a robot's agility is defined by its jointsEach joint relies on computation, communication, and perception, with intelligent flexible joints serving as the key to resolving the balance of rigidity and flexibility in robotsThe ability to create agile joints and precise controls will enable robots to perform human-like motions.

For mass adoption of humanoid robots in factories and households, it will be crucial to minimize overall production costs to levels that consumers find acceptable while maintaining international competitiveness

Currently, the industry is dominated by SMEs, and there is a lack of guiding enterprises like leading tech firms, ecosystem-driven entities, and unicorns to effectively anchor and amplify the industry's supply chain and ecosystem development.

Industry professionals have pointed out that humanoid robots need not adhere strictly to a human formThe concept should not become a hindrance in the progression of the industryChen emphasized that the core essence of humanoid robots lies in replacing human labor with automated tools and devices, suggesting that while achieving a human-like form is beneficial, finding viable real-world applications is of greater importance.

In this regard, the industry is advancing exploration effortsVarious humanoid robotics enterprises are focusing on specialized applications in relatively mature industries to create intelligent robots with specific functionalities and then transitioning to developing fully humanoid robots.

Zhong posits that from the perspectives of controlling costs and expanding applications, initial attempts to gain market acceptance could provide broader applications for the entire industry and allow intelligent robots to optimize and iterate in practical scenarios, ultimately creating a virtuous development cycle.

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology identified several obstacles within China’s humanoid robotics industry, such as a weak foundational base, insufficient leading enterprises, and superficial integration of technologies

There remains a considerable gap separating China from global leaders in fundamental technologies like chips, advanced sensors, high-precision servo motors, and precision reducers, with challenges such as high hardware barriers and complicated software algorithms restricting innovation and increasing costs.

Furthermore, there is a need to strengthen cross-disciplinary collaborations between AI and robotics firms, enhancing innovation aligned with AI large modelsThe full potential of large models in empowering and enhancing robots is yet to be fully realized, which limits the efficiency of humanoid robot development and training.

Overall, experts remain optimistic about the future trajectory of the humanoid robotics sector in China, emphasizing advancements towards higher technological sophistication, diversified product series, application-focused development, and ecological integration.

With an array of initiatives planned, like establishing provincial manufacturing innovation centers focused on humanoid robotics in key regions such as Guangdong, Beijing, Shanghai, and Anhui, efforts are underway to consolidate industry capacity by gathering leading companies, prestigious universities, and national research bodies to focus on technological breakthroughs, industry cooperation, and application promotion.